Let's play "Ignore the bad news" game

Here's some bad news to ignore:

• Food prices jump - AP
• Home Foreclosures: Crisis only getting deeper - CNBC
• Fed won't solve housing crisis - Reuters
• Gas above $3.75 a gallon - AP
• Whole Food shares battered after weak earnings - AP
• Foreclosure filings jump 65% -AP
• Vatican says aliens exist - BBC News

Enjoy the rally while it lasts...

Too many predicting $200 crude oil

Watching this video reminds me of the last time such gurus were calling for $100 crude oil. This was last year when crude was going over $60. Indeed, we have clearly passed $100, but we didn't get here in a straight line. Also, these gurus rarely give timelines, so we know in principle it's gonna happen. Anyway, I suspect too many have piled into crude oil and it's time for a nice break before the next rally... Bloomberg Video

With the Fed out of the way now...

can we please get some action? Volatility indexes are suggesting a drop, ditto put/call ratios. Price has been unable to make much progress lately, so when are these indicators going to be obliged?

As good as it gets? Almost...

I would agree with Gary here- we are close to, or at the top. Time for a drop. Gary has mentioned the WSJ data showing selling into SPY strength plus high RSI levels. I would add that put/call ratios are in sell territory, ditto volatility indexes, though these two indicators could do better. Maybe one or two more days and ping! the oven will be hot enough...

Anonymous

I thought Anonymous was gone, he/she promised "this will be my last post here...". Alas, Anonymous cannot resist visiting this blog even when there are no updates! Anyway, markets are on a rally today, since we are in a bear market I'll wait for the next SAR opportunity rather than jump on board the long train...

My prediction

Is: "It's gonna be one hell of a week!". Earnings season is here- Alcoa kicks off today and GE will cap off the week on Friday. In between will be a slew of companies reporting, from retail all the way to the bad boy banks. Brace yourselves- with the recent rally and volatility indexes where they are, plus low-ish put-call ratios, I doubt there is much upside left. In fact, I think some downside needs to play out even if earnings season is as expected. Remember expectations (low bar) is always more important than reality...

Is oil forming a double top?

OK Anonymous, for crying out loud, here's a post to keep you happy for a few days: is crude oil forming a double top? Just check out charts e.g. USO. If so this could be a great time to look for shorts in oil and oil companies, or ETFs XLE and OIH. But keep those stops tight...